Studying the theory of sports betting leads to the conclusion that any financial or analytical strategy leads to a loss in the long run.
Nevertheless, if one extends the functional horizon of betting, one can notice that different bookmakers in India approach the probability of outcomes on the same events differently. Theoretically, this situation can give a mathematical possibility of a 100% profit. True, it would be small. Read more about this topic on mega-news.in.
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What is a bookmaker’s fork?
A bookmaker’s fork is a situation where different bookmaker’s offices estimate opposite outcomes of one event in such a way that with a mutual bet on both outcomes the player remains in profit in any case. The profitability of the fork rarely exceeds 5%. Experts recommend ignoring more profitable types. This is a clear bookmaker’s mistake and it can be done on purpose, to identify “forkers” and block their accounts.
Bookmaker’s fork is also often called an arbitrage situation by analogy with the financial market, in which there are also sometimes situations where the value of the same asset on different exchanges allows you to earn on the simultaneous sale and purchase. Therefore, forked bettors, that is, bettors in India who earn in this way are often also called arbitrageurs.
The mathematical meaning of sports betting forks
To understand the essence of a bookmaker’s fork, we need to consider an example. Let’s assume that two bookmakers Pupa and Lupa give the following odds on the outcome of a soccer match between the teams “Kony” and “Pony”:
- a Pony win is 1.25 at Pupa and 1.43 at Loopa;
- ponies win – 3.9 at Poop and 2.85 at Loop.
The main indicator for the effectiveness of a fork bet, also used by bookmakers, is the inverse amount. In the case under consideration in the office “Pupa”, it is 1.056 (1/1.25 + 1/3.9). At Lupe, it is 1.051 (1/1.43 + 1/2.85). In both companies, the inversion amount is greater than one, which means that the player will not be able to make money on a single bet on opposite outcomes.
However, by combining bets from different bookmaker’s offices, it is possible to achieve a figure of less than 1. In this example, this will happen if you bet on the win of the Horses at the Lupa betting office, and the win of the Ponies at the Poop betting office. With the sum of the bets on the victory of the weaker “Horses” in 100 Indian rupees on the “Ponies” would have to bet 272.72 INR. The profit from the fork will be 4.66%. To earn well on the forks you need to make a lot of bets per day on different championships.
As you can see, any fork bet involves making two (and in some cases – three) bets at once in different bookmaker companies. Each of them is called a “leverage”. The size of each fork leverage, based on the betting bank, can be easily calculated by the formulas X/I*K1 and X/I*K2, where:
- X – the total size of the betting bank;
- And – the number of inversions of the bet. The same that must be less than 1 (without this condition there will be no fork at all );
- K1 and K2 – the largest odds for opposite outcomes of the same event.
You can search for the forks yourself, but only before the matches. In the play, it is unreal to make calculations independently, because the time to make a bet on both shoulders rarely exceeds a few seconds.
Causes of forked bets
Forks arise for a variety of reasons, of which the most common should be the following:
- Bookmakers are people too. Each company sets its analytical staff, which assesses the probability of the outcome. His staff can trivial press the wrong number. Over time, there are fewer and fewer mistakes, as people in such centers are increasingly replaced by special software.
- Program error. In 2022 for most events, odds are determined by programs automatically, and if the programs are not perfect, the software can fail.
- Different views of the event. Another human factor. The fact that bookmakers’ opinions on the outcome of an event may be different. At the same time, companies tend to take bets on as many events as possible. As a result, for example, the opinion of one bookmaker on the match of the Continental Hockey League will be very different from that of another gambling club.
- Conscious “hunting” bookmakers. The betting companies do not like the forked bettors, because they make a loss to them in the long run. The relationship between them resembles a war in which all means are good. The bookmaker can make a fork with one of the other bookmakers knowingly, to catch the forks “on the bait”. Further, his actions will depend on the company’s policy. The most severe punishment is blocking the account, but other penalties are also practiced. For example, the reduction of the maximum bet, as a result of which it becomes impossible to use the account for the wick.
- The update rate of bets in live mode is different for all bookmakers. There are no identical values.
A sharp increase in the number of bets can often lead to a drop in odds. It may also be used by an arbitrator.
Types of fork bets
There are two main classifications. According to the number of shoulders:
The difference between them is the number of bets on opposite outcomes. For example, in soccer, a winning fork involves three bets – a win for team 1, a win for team 2, and a draw. If you do not overlap at least one shoulder, the fork strategy ends and simple gambling begins.
By game mode:
Most of the forks occur in live mode, but it is also more difficult to catch them – they quickly disappear. The situation when the bettor did not have time to overlap one shoulder happens often. Pre-match forks last a long time, but that is why they are suspicious. If the bookmaker can easily catch a fork in the live game by observing the basic safety rules, he will do it in the pre-match.
How do bookmakers calculate pickers?
All methods can be divided into two notional groups – behavioral and technical. The first is related to the peculiarities of the arbitrator’s behavior, the second is related to the technical capabilities of determining the IP address, encryption protocol, etc.
In the first case, the fork player can give out the manner of betting strange amounts. Using formulas to calculate betting leverage based on the bank can give figures like 272 or 344 Indian rupees. A normal player who came to have fun and not to work does not bet like that, he prefers beautiful sums of 100, 200, or 1000 INR.
An unexpected bet on a not very popular sport can also arouse suspicion. Often the forks on them are created by bookmakers on purpose.
In the second case, bookmakers collect technical information about all users with the help of special programs through their websites. So, for example, if the same person logs on to the site from two accounts with the same IP, both accounts may be banned.
In general, even with all precautions, no one can provide complete insurance against getting banned. This is confirmed by the fact that it is not uncommon for players who have never been involved in arbitrage to get blocked for it. Experienced scalpers say that the average life of an account when actively playing this way is up to 1 week. Every fork player should have verified accounts to be able to introduce new ones in a short period.
What other obstacles are there in the way of forklists?
In theory, the concept of forks looks win-win, but in practice, things are not so rosy. In addition to the opposition of bookmakers, every arbitrator’s faces:
- With the departure of timing. That is, with those situations where the bet succeeded only one shoulder. And where there should be the second, the line closed or the odds collapsed.
- With sluggish betting. Most bookmaker sites don’t accept in-play bets for a second, there are so-called “hangups”, during which the in-play can be refreshed. As a result, one shoulder may be accepted at the main odds, and the other at reduced odds.
- With different rules of betting organizations. So, for example, in one company the calculation of the canceled match may occur under the rules of the return with a single odds, and in another – under the terms of the loss of one of the participants.
A beginner should not be in a hurry. It is better to weigh all the risks and nuances beforehand and only after that start playing for money.
What else does a beginner bettor in India need to know?
It is possible to make money on forks. Unlike most strategies, this concept does not involve lengthy analysis and is based on mathematics. However, in practice, the fork player faces a lot of problems that kill the probability just as much as the odds.
To make regular earnings on the forks it is necessary to have a good start-up capital, preferably a lot of special equipment and programs (the forks scanner, as well as VPN, are mandatory). The computer must be fast, so as not to create additional pauses in loading pages. However, with the proper level of technical equipment, and compliance with the rules of digital masking, you can count on a steady income.